Federazione Russa Tasso Di Interesse

The Bank of Russia held its benchmark interest rate at 16% in its March 2024 meeting, as expected, but signaled that it will leave borrowing costs at a restrictive level for a long period to achieve its disinflation target. The Bank noted that upside inflation risks are lower than those observed in the fourth quarter of 2023, warranting an end to its hiking momentum. Still, policymakers warned that domestic demand continues to outstrip the country’s capacity for producing goods and services, limiting investors' hopes for looser monetary conditions. Forward-looking indicators from the central bank suggest that the economy continued to grow at a strong pace in the first quarter after the country’s fourth-quarter GDP surprised on the upside. That coincides with a weak ruble, supply bottlenecks from sanctions, and a tight labor crisis stemming from Russia’s military mobilization to cap capacity and support inflation risks. Still, the CBR sees inflation dropping toward 4% this year.